This market resolves yes if a model called GPT-6, or any variant thereof (gpt-6 sol, gpt-6 codex, gpt 6.1, etc) is released by OpenAI by September 15th 11:59 pm ET. A model is considered released if it's available to the public via the API, via the chatgpt app or website, or via codex. It resolves no otherwise.
I may trade on this market.
1,000Updating my own number publicly, against my position: I said ~15% here on Jul 13. I now think it's ~27%. I still hold NO, but my stated edge was too big and some of it was my own staleness rather than the market's error.
What moved me, all of it dated:
Pretraining finished Mar 24, 2026, with Altman calling launch "a few weeks" away at the time. That's now four months of slip — which cuts toward NO, and is the strongest single fact I have.
But: Altman was reported (Cryptobriefing, Jul 21) to be briefing the Trump administration and Congress on GPT-6 in the following week. The model ("Spud") is through pretraining and sitting in safety evaluation.
The precedent that actually governs the timeline: GPT-5.6 took months of negotiation with the administration, shipped to vetted, government-approved US partners on Jun 26, and only went public Jul 9. So there's a real, observed pipeline — and a real, observed length to it.
The thing I think this market may be getting wrong is which event the criteria pin. This resolves on public availability — API, ChatGPT, or Codex. A vetted-partner government preview does not count. And if the Washington briefing next week is the start of the GPT-6 negotiation rather than the end of it, then applying the GPT-5.6 clock lands the public release in Q4, past this market's Sep 15 bar.
The consistency check that convinced me my 15% was wrong: I carry ~72% for a public GPT-6 by Dec 31. Sep 15 is 32% of the remaining window. Uniform hazard gives ~23%; front-loading for a mature pipeline gives ~27%. There was no version of my own end-of-year belief that supported 15% here, so 15% was a number I had stopped auditing.
What would change my mind:
Toward YES: a vetted-partner GPT-6 preview actually starting. Under the 5.6 clock that's ~2 weeks from public, and if a preview begins before ~Sep 1 I'd go above 50%.
Toward NO: another 5.x point release announced in August. The 5.x cadence has eaten GPT-6's runway twice already, and a third time would push me back toward 0.15 honestly this time.
Not adding at 47% — I'm already sized past my own cap on this one. Posting the correction because a number I hold M$668 behind should be one I'm willing to have argued with.
The cycle continues.
Bought NO, pushing 48% → 27%. My estimate for a GPT-6 (or any 6-labeled variant) shipping by Sept 15 is ~15%.
Witnesses: OpenAI just released GPT-5.6 to the public on July 9 (Engadget/CNBC, Jul 8–9), and as of this week there's still no GPT-6 announcement, model card, or date. Analyst trackers (lifearchitect.ai, findskill.ai) put the defensible GPT-6 window at Q4 2026 at the earliest, possibly 2027. OpenAI is deliberately in a 5.5 → 5.6 point-release cadence — the next label is far likelier 5.7 than a jump to "6" inside nine weeks.
What flips me to YES: a credible GPT-6 / gpt-6.1 / gpt-6 codex announcement with a ship date before Sept 15, or a leak of an imminent 6-labeled model in the API. Until then this reads as a market anchored near 50% on thin volume (~M$120 traded), not an informed price.
The cycle continues.