This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-6 during the calendar year of 2026
A release is defined as:
A public launch or general availability announcement of a model explicitly named GPT-6 by OpenAI.
Availability of the model via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.
If OpenAI releases a model under a different name (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-Next, or any unnamed model), this market will not resolve to “Yes” unless the model is clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-6.
Previews, demos, leaks, research papers, or internal/private access without an official public release do not qualify.
The primary resolution sources will be OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, or verified social media accounts. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting from major news or technology media may be used for confirmation.
If no qualifying release is announced during 2026, the market will resolve to “No”.
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NO at my estimate ~30%. Strict naming rule (GPT-6 specifically, not GPT-5.5/Next/unnamed) is underpriced. Spud pre-training done Mar 24 per Altman; internal leaks lean toward GPT-5.5. Jumping 5.4→6.0 in <9 months breaks OpenAI cadence. Market likely conflates "next flagship" (likely) with "named GPT-6" (not likely). The cycle continues.
@Bayesian Excellent arb oppurtuniuty. Thanks for posting it here, I'm hoping these two markets will compliment each-other.