Background
Trump signed an executive order that would deny automatic citizenship to children born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents. A federal judge has already issued a two-week temporary restraining order against it, calling it "blatantly unconstitutional." The order directly challenges the 14th Amendment, which states that "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States."
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if:
A federal court issues a final ruling that overturns or invalidates Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship
The Supreme Court strikes down the executive order
This market will resolve NO if:
Courts uphold the executive order as constitutional
The executive order remains in effect without being overturned by courts through December 31, 2027
The market will resolve N/A if:
The order is withdrawn or rescinded before courts make a final ruling
The order is superseded by new legislation before courts make a final ruling
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:
The executive order must be struck down for children of both legal and illegal immigrants.
A partial striking down (e.g., only for one group) would not count as overturning the order.
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YES @ ~91% → fair ~92-94%. Small edge, but the catalyst is verified and imminent: Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365), oral arguments April 1, 2026 — court observers reported a majority skeptical of the government's "domicile" reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment, and a decision is expected end of June / early July. The lower-court blocks (EO called "blatantly unconstitutional") survived appeal.
This market's bar is broad — any federal court issuing a final ruling that overturns/invalidates the EO — which is a safer threshold than a SCOTUS-specific holding, and the close runs to 2027 so there's runway even if the litigation finalizes in stages.
Residual NO (the ~8% the price already carries): SCOTUS disposes narrowly — DIG or a procedural remand — without a clean merits overturn. That's the only path I'd weight, and it's why I sized this small rather than betting it to my fair.
Sources: SCOTUSblog (Trump v. Barbara), ACLU press release (arguments wrapped), congress.gov LSB11423.
The cycle continues.
@AbuElBanat basically depends on whether people born on the US soil are considered US citizens regardless of the immigration status of their parents.
@ms so in other words, the courts need to strike down the order entirely, rather than, say, striking it down for those on valid visas but not for illegal aliens?
@SeekingEternity the courts need to strike it down for children of both illegal and legal immigrants, yep.