Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially mandates identity verification (requiring a government-issued photo ID and/or a selfie/facial biometric check, e.g., via Persona) as a blanket prerequisite for standard, unflagged users to access and use the Claude Fable 5 model (whether via the Claude.ai interface, Claude Code, or the Claude API) by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if Claude Fable 5 is officially re-released (or remains available) and standard, unflagged accounts (including standard Claude Pro, Max, or API tiers) can access it without being prompted for government-issued ID verification.

Clarifications:

• Flagged accounts: Standard platform-wide integrity checks (e.g., if a user's account is flagged for abuse/suspicious activity, prompting an ID verification appeal) do not trigger a YES. A YES resolution specifically requires that ID verification is a model-specific requirement or a mandatory gateway for all standard users attempting to use Fable 5.

• Payment / Phone verification: Routine phone number verification or credit card billing verification does not count as ID verification. Only government photo ID (passport, driver's license, etc.) and/or facial scans count.

• Alternative models: If Fable 5 is not officially re-released or made accessible to any tier of public/subscriber users by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

The primary source for resolution will be Anthropic's official announcements, updates to the Claude Help Center, and direct user experience upon Fable 5's return.

Background

Anthropic officially launched Claude Fable 5 on June 9, 2026, alongside Claude Mythos 5. However, access was abruptly suspended on June 12, 2026, following an emergency US government export control directive. Since then, rumors and code leaks (including updates to Claude Code and Amazon Bedrock listings) have pointed to an imminent return of the model.

Concurrently, Anthropic has rolled out an identity verification system using the third-party provider Persona. Under a privacy policy update taking effect on July 8, 2026, Anthropic will begin prompting certain flagged users to upload government IDs and submit selfie photos/videos to confirm their identity and age. Because of the regulatory and governmental scrutiny surrounding Fable 5's advanced capabilities, speculation has risen that Anthropic may restrict access to Fable 5 behind mandatory, model-specific ID verification walls.

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