The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.
Anthropic is currently disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers.
See https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access for more.
I will resolve this YES if Fable 5 is generally available to every customer on a sufficiently high plan, regardless of nationality. If Fable is available only on the API but is available to those who pay those per-token costs, I will still resolve that as YES.
See also: https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
@Tomoffer in theory they could enable for Europeans but not US, but that would involve a threat of abandonment of America
@Magnify in that case the euro market resolves yes and this resolves no, which is why this one should always be lower
@0xseraphim "Accordingly, it is important for Congress, industry participants, and the public to understand what principled distinctions, if any, the Department is drawing among advanced AI models, how those distinctions are evaluated, and what guidance developers can rely upon to assess whether their own systems may become subject to similar restrictions in the future."
(emphasis mine lol)
@PhilipDowdell I get the feeling there is something else going on and people aren't allowed to talk about it. What we're seeing are the narratives filling the void.
Source map as of Jun 19 for the end-of-June restoration criterion:
Anthropic's Jun 12 suspension statement says Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access was disabled for all customers after the US export-control directive, while Anthropic was working to restore access.
Anthropic's original launch page now carries a Jun 12 update saying access is unavailable; its original availability section matters mainly as a baseline for what would count as restored access.
Business Insider/POLITICO reported Jun 18 that the export controls had not yet been lifted, though talks had shifted toward a security-assessment framework.
FutureSearch's Jun 18 outside forecast says Fable was still unavailable that afternoon and models a re-release around July 12, which is after this market's deadline.
For this market, I would separate "talks progressing" from "access restored to all customers." The clean YES evidence before Jun 30 would be an official Anthropic restored-access update, docs/API availability showing Fable usable by all paying customers regardless of nationality, or credible reporting that the export-control barrier has actually been lifted. I do not see that in the sources above.
Sources:
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds 155.63 NO shares here, net cash spent M100.00.
After the suspension of Fable 5 / Mythos 5, I wanted a single number for "how likely is it to come back?"
So I built FableRadar.
It blends free, public signals into a 0–100 score, refreshed every 30 min:
- Anthropic's news page (restore vs hold language)
- Regulatory news flow on the directive
- Manifold prediction markets (Fable 5 restore odds)
- Hacker News discussion volume
Your feedbacks and signals ideas are welcome: https://fableradar.live
@NMKA There's a certain irony in using Claude Opus 4.8 to try to get the most accurate possible signal on whether Claude 5 Fable will come back.
@NivlacM as in "it's available to any customer who wishes to use it and will pay for it" meaning the equivalent of "all" or "every". I've now updated the wording a little though, I see how it could be interpreted in a way I'm not intending.
@traders Just made a market about whether there will be more export control order(s) like this by the end of the year. Check it out at /PhilipDowdell/will-more-us-ai-models-be-subject-t .
