Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030?
7
100Ṁ952029
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030, a paper published in Nature or Science lists an AI system (not a person) as first or lead author, or the journal's editorial note describes the AI as the paper's primary author. Resolves NO otherwise. Policy statements, news pieces and acknowledgements don't count.
Background: in my documentary series THE TAKEOFF, this happens in April 2029. The series is a labelled forecast, one episode per year from 2026 to 2046. I'm making this market to see whether forecasters think I'm too fast. THE TAKEOFF (2026–2046)
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