Will an AI agent cause a plane crash in 2026?
41
1kṀ7348
Dec 30
2%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if an AI agent, or a group of AI agents, is responsible for an aeroplane crash or collision causing at least one fatality in 2026.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

If agentic AI is suspected of causing a plane crash in 2026, this market may remain open until the cause is conclusively determined. Otherwise, this market will resolve at the end of 2026.

  • Update 2026-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Drones do not count as planes.

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@a_l_e_x Can drones be considered aeroplanes? Definitions matter a lot here.

@Quroe for the purposes of this market, a drone is not a plane. My reasoning for this is truly awful: I didn't intend to count drones as planes, and there are no YES traders who might've assumed otherwise

@a_l_e_x Please define where you draw the line. Where is the tipping point between an aircraft that just barely counts and one that just barely doesn't?

@Quroe if there's a dispute here I'll consult dictionary/encyclopaedia entries for 'aeroplane'/'airplane'. Are there any specific edge cases you're thinking of?

@a_l_e_x Stuff like this, but what if piloted by AI? Or what about if it's human controlled and AI assisted?

https://youtube.com/shorts/-WUjG6Wdd2U?is=aFT-skpXRvPAOokq

Does having any humans on board the vessel matter for your definition?

How does the intention of the aircraft weigh into whether or not it counts?

Does autopilot count as an AI agent? Does an AI agent have to be an LLM to count?

(I'm not trying to berate, to be clear. I'm just trying to save you a headache if an event is not clear about whether or not it counts in the future.)

@Quroe ok great, the questioning is a bit vexatious but I'll address a few things. I'm reluctant to make sweeping clarifications without thinking carefully about the consequences, because that can actually cause more problems than it solves

Based on what I've written in the description, I would say there's no strict requirement for a human to be onboard the plane at the time of the crash. Let's say a military jet is interfered with by an AI agent - I have no idea if that is possible btw - the pilots eject safely but the jet crashes into a house and kills someone on the ground. That would count. But if it's an aircraft that's designed to be unmanned, that is probably not what a reasonable trader would consider a plane, hence the "no drones" rule

I don't see how autopilot in its current form would count as an AI agent. Nothing in the description suggests the purpose of the plane (military, passenger, cargo) or whether a human intended it to crash makes a difference, as long as an AI agent is "responsible"

I can clarify more later, but that's all I have time for at the moment

@a_l_e_x That helps a lot! That defines the shape of the market much better.

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