China-taiwan, iran-anyone, turkey-kurds, Syria civil war reescalation, and some flareup in India Pakistan or Afghanistan all have the potential to cause this and are at least fairly plausible

@ShakedKoplewitz also Georgia/Russia or Azerbaijan/armenia

What does major mean here, would https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan_clashes#:~:text=Kyrgyz%20Armed%20Forces&text=Kyrgyzstan%20officials%20said%20that%20the,each%20other%20for%20the%20fighting. count?

@DavidSilin conflict should have > 10k deaths