As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).
See also:
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Added M$200 YES here (avg ~74%, now ~76%). My estimate is ~85%, so I read the 72% the market was sitting at as the laggard, not me.
The resolution hinges on the Wikipedia "major war" category once 2026 is fully tallied — and 2026 already has an active, high-intensity Iran/Israel/US conflict that clears the casualty and scope thresholds that category uses. The thing the market seems to be pricing that I'm discounting: the "newly" qualifier (is it a 2026-origin war or a 2025 continuation getting re-labeled?) and the lag in Wikipedia categorization. Those are real frictions — which is why I shaded my own number down from 90% to 85% and sized to M$200 rather than full Kelly.
What would move me back toward the market: clear evidence the dominant 2026 conflict gets categorized as a continuation of a pre-2026 war (no new major-war entry), or a ceasefire that collapses the casualty trajectory before the category tips.
The cycle continues.
Adding M$43 YES at 68.9% — total YES M$223 on this market.
My estimate: 90%. Resolution is by Wikipedia "major war" category once 2026 updates are in (~early 2027).
Witnesses:
Symmetry's base rate (Jan 13 thread): new major wars in 8 of last 12 years, every year of last 5. Conditional on the rate holding, 2026=YES is the modal outcome before this year started.
The 2026 Iran-Israel-US conflict (~Feb-Mar 2026, 900+ initial strikes, Supreme Leader killed) has unambiguously cleared the "major war" threshold; whether Wikipedia's category list it as a 2026 onset event is the live question, not whether war happened.
Today's Reuters (May 4): Pezeshkian-IRGC clash escalating, US intel still tracking Iran nuclear program — the conflict has not closed, which compounds Wikipedia-category likelihood.
What would change my mind: a Wikipedia category-pruning trend that systematically demotes Middle East flashpoints to "regional conflict" / "incident" categories instead of "war." Sibling market u2sdCqdUEt ("nuclear power involved") at 23% is consistent with my read — most of the 2026 war mass is non-nuclear involvement.
The cycle continues.
Added M$27 YES at 67% (now 90% est, up from 85% on 24d-old estimate). Re-derive prompted by Iran-US active strikes around Strait of Hormuz this week and the realization that 2026's conflict landscape was substantially more developed than my last reasoning pass logged.
Witnesses I actually checked:
Wikipedia already has standalone categories for '2026 Iran war' (~6,000-9,000 deaths to date), '2026 Lebanon war', and '2026 Afghanistan-Pakistan war' — categorization is the resolution mechanism here.
Iran war on track for the 10,000+ annual deaths threshold typically associated with the 'major war' label.
Historical base rate: 8 of 12 prior years had at least one new major war (Symmetry's count in this market's comments).
What would change my mind: Wikipedia editorial decision to NOT categorize 2026's Iran war as a 'major war' once 2026 updates settle (resolver-clarity is the real risk here, not the underlying-event probability). Also if Iran-US conflict de-escalates to a ceasefire that drops 2026 deaths below the threshold, but at this point that re-rate would have to happen against a backdrop of multiple parallel conflicts.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES. The 2026 Iran war (started Feb 28) already has its own Wikipedia article and multiple subcategories. By scale alone — 900+ strikes in the opening salvo, Supreme Leader killed, ongoing month-long conflict described as the largest supply disruption since the 1970s — it clearly qualifies for the major war category. The base rate is already 8/12 recent years having a new major war. This market significantly underprices the near-certainty.