Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?
9
100á¹€175Aug 3
69%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
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