
Which company will create AGI first?
73
1.9kṀ43832036
39%
DeepMind
14%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
10%
xAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
2%
1.3%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
1.2%
DeepSeek
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
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A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
5% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
12% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
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When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
By when will we have AGI?
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@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
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A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
5% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
12% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
By when will we have AGI?


