When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
3
250Ṁ2092036
April 10, 2030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
Before Oct 2026
19%
Before Apr 2027
26%
Before Oct 2027
36%
Before Apr 2028
44%
Before Oct 2028
50%
Before Dec 2029
50%
Before Dec 2030
61%
Before Dec 2031
79%
Before Dec 2033
89%
Before Dec 2035
Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them. Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself. Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months). Also submitted to Metaculus.
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