Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
2
100Ṁ60Dec 31
72%
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Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
Resolution criteria:
Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
Private/public leaderboard scores both count
The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Must be independently verifiable (not just a self-reported claim)
Resolution source: arcprize.org leaderboard or published paper with reproducible results.
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