Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the calendar year (UTC) in which the initial discovery or successful synthesis of element 119 (ununennium) is first officially announced to the public.
An announcement qualifies if it meets either of the following standards:
A formal press release or peer-reviewed publication from an established nuclear research laboratory/collaboration (e.g., RIKEN, JINR, GSI Helmholtzzentrum, or LBNL) claiming the successful observation/synthesis of at least one nucleus of element 119.
An official joint announcement by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) and the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP) confirming or acknowledging discovery priority.
If multiple claims occur, the market resolves to the year of the first qualifying public announcement, even if independent replication or formal IUPAC verification occurs in a later year.
If element 119 is not discovered within the range of specified answer options, or if discovery is not announced before a final cutoff date established in the answers, the market will resolve to the designated "Later / Never" option (or N/A if all answers are exhausted and addition of answers is disabled).
Background
Element 119, tentatively named ununennium (symbol Uue), is the lightest element on the periodic table that has not yet been synthesized. If created, it will be the first element in Period 8 and sit in Group 1 directly below francium.
Synthesis requires heavy-ion fusion reactions using advanced particle accelerators—such as firing titanium-50 or vanadium-51 beams at berkelium or curium targets. Active experimental campaigns have been pursued at institutions including the RIKEN Nishina Center in Japan, the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR) in Russia, and the Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou (HIRFL), China. Because fusion cross-sections decrease sharply for elements beyond oganesson (element 118), producing even a single verifiable atom may require months or years of continuous beam time.
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