See also https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/does-the-island-of-stability-exist

@ArmandodiMatteo Huh! I searched for markets about the island of stability before making this, and didn't see any, but search on this site is not so reliable.

@Forrest Isaac King's market is recent (I think it was opened this morning)

You might also want to create a market with a much later resolution date -- even if such isotopes exist there's a pretty good chance they're not detected by 2031

@ArmandodiMatteo https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with-382ef70432fb

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

50% chance. (Longer-term duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with) I sometimes hear speculation about an island of stability, but don't have a good sense of how likely the experts actually consider it to be. Resolves YES if an observation of such an isotope is published by market close, otherwise NO.