What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
23
2.6kṀ1978Nov 4
97%
Trump is incumbent president
93%
Democrats win back the house majority
90%
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
86%
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
82%
Abdul El Sayed wins Michigan senate seat
78%
An incumbent senator loses general election
71%
GOP and MAGA attempts to overturn 2026 midterm election
65%
Democrats win both chamber of congress
57%
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
56%
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
50%
Blue wave in 2026 midterms election
46%
An Incumbent governor loses general election
44%
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in a 2026 midterm election
31%
2026 midterm election not free and fair
28%
Republicans in polls and markets rise back up and retakes the lead
18%
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
18%
Republicans vote in highest turnout numbers and win the midterms
17%
Another Jan 6-style capitol attack
17%
October surprises help Republicans win house majority and midterms
17%
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.
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