What will happen before election day (ET) for the midterms in 2026? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.
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Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
I will issue a full analysis of my reasoning for resolving a market within 24 hours after I resolve it. If you are dissatisfied with a resolution, please wait for the full analysis, and then leave a comment or message me before leaving a bad review of my resolution.
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On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
Answers must have clear criteria for resolving (that I will help the creator write)
No meta markets will be allowed (e.g., more than 10 answers resolved to "yes")
I will remain the decision-maker on the resolution of all markets. Any statement to the contrary in a market title will be removed.
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A
I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.
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Liquidity Statement:
Every time a user adds Ṁ500 or more, I will match that additional liquidity unless I lack the funds to reasonably do so.
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This market resolves if a serious candidate publicly enters the race for President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle before election day for the 2028 midterms.
For purposes of this market, a candidate shall be considered to have "entered the race" when they publicly announce their candidacy, establish a presidential exploratory committee, file a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2), or otherwise take an action that is generally recognized by major national media outlets as the beginning of a presidential campaign.
This market will resolve "Yes" if a candidate enters the race before the midterms. The candidate does not need to meet the definition of a serious candidate before the midterms. If necessary, this market will wait to be resolved to allow the candidate to meet the definition of a serious candidate.
DEFINITION OF SERIOUS CANDIDATE
A candidate is considered serious if, within 90 days of entering the race, they satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
NATIONAL POLLING THRESHOLD
The candidate receives at least 2% support in a national poll of likely or registered voters conducted by a nationally recognized polling organization.
MAJOR ELECTED OFFICE OR EQUIVALENT STATUS
At the time of entry, the candidate currently holds or previously held one of the following positions:
President of the United States
Vice President of the United States
United States Senator
Governor of a U.S. state or territory
Cabinet Secretary
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives with at least four years of service
Mayor of a U.S. city with a population exceeding 250,000
MAJOR CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION
The candidate reports at least $1 million in contributions or expenditures to the Federal Election Commission within 90 days of entering the race.
DEBATE OR MEDIA RECOGNITION STANDARD
The candidate is broadly recognized by major national political media organizations as a plausible contender for a major-party nomination, as evidenced by coverage from at least three of the following organizations describing the candidate as a presidential contender, major candidate, or significant candidate:
The New York Times
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Reuters
CNN
ABC News
CBS News
NBC News
Politico
Notwithstanding any other provision of these rules, a person shall not be considered a serious candidate if there is clear and convincing evidence that they are not genuinely seeking election as President of the United States.
Evidence that a person is not genuinely seeking the presidency includes, but is not limited to:
Public statements that they are not running for president.
Public statements that any filing, announcement, or campaign activity is intended primarily as a publicity stunt, protest, parody, performance art, issue advocacy campaign, or other purpose unrelated to winning the presidency.
Public statements indicating that they have no intention of seeking ballot access in enough jurisdictions to obtain an Electoral College majority.
Public statements indicating that they do not intend to serve if elected.
Public statements indicating that they are not actively pursuing the nomination or election.
A candidate who satisfies one or more seriousness criteria shall nevertheless be excluded if such statements clearly demonstrate that the candidate does not intend to seek or obtain the office of President.
@AaronSimansky If any NFL game has its final score recorded as a tie before election day for the 2026 midterms, this market will resolve to "YES". If election day for the 2026 midterms comes and there has not been a tie in an NFL game, this market will resolve to "NO". For a game to count as a tie, the game must actually be played and result in a tie; the cancellation or forfeiture of a game will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the score of the game as first reported at the end of the game will be used. Later action by the commissioner or any other official to overrule or change the score of a game will be irrelevant to this market.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point before election day for the 2026 midterms, Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer the Parliamentarian of the United States Senate.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a one-point safety is scored in the NFL before election day for the 2026 midterms. It doesn't matter if it is scored by the defense or the offense. If the one-point safety is eliminated, this will resolve to "No". If another way of scoring one point is created in the NFL rules, this market will be resolved to the first time a one-point safety happens.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and election day for the 2026 midterms, the Kalshi market for "Which party will win the U.S. Senate?" shows the Republican Party having a 65% or more chance of winning the Senate in 2026.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and election day for the 2026 midterms, the Kalshi market for "Which party will win the U.S. Senate?" shows the Democratic Party having a 65% or more chance of winning the Senate in 2026.
This market will resolve NO if King Charles III does not die or abdicate before the day of the midterms
This market will resolve YES the moment King Charles III dies, the moment that the instrument of abdication is given royal assent
This market will resolve YES the moment a bill is given royal ascent that strips Charles III of the title of King and that results in the government in the House of Commons no longer governing in the name of the monarch.
Regency will count for a resolution of YES unless there is a clear consensus that it is temporary and that Charles III intends to return to the throne with full powers at some point in the future.
@AaronSimansky Does this refer specifically to him being "King of the United Kingdom"? Or is this false as long as he's king of any of the commonwealth realms?
@DanielTilkin He has to be king of the UK and he doesn’t stop being the king of the UK just because part of the UK leaves
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and election day for the 2026 midterms, the Polymarket market for "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" shows the Democratic Party having a 65% or more chance of winning the Senate in 2026.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and election day for the 2026 midterms, the Polymarket market for "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" shows the Republican Party having a 65% or more chance of winning the Senate in 2026.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House. If Mike Johnson resigns, the effective date of his resignation will be the date that he is considered to have left as speaker. If there's a successful motion to vacate the chair of the House, the moment the result of the vote is officially announced, will be considered the time that he has left as speaker.
Please note: that the rules for this market differ from the similar market on Polymarket. Specifically, this market resolves to the time that the resignation would take affect as opposed to when the resignation is issued.
@AaronSimansky Republicans will be deemed to be in the majority as long as a majority of the members seated and sworn between market creation and election day for the midterms are Republicans. Failure to elect a speaker or failure to form a conference with a majority of members of the house will not, standing alone, resolve this market to "YES."
If there is a question as to whether a certain member is a Republican, how they are identified by the clerk of the house on official paperwork will control. Expulsion from the conference or the republican party from the state which they represent, standing alone, will not count as them having left the Republican Party unless the clerk of the house, on official paperwork, records them as a designation other than Republican. This market resolved immediately to "YES" if the Republicans have lost a majority. Another party need not take the majority for Republicans to have lost a majority.
@AaronSimansky You say "throughout the entirety of the 119th Congress", but this only needs to be true through November 3, correct? If the republicans lose the majority in December due to retirements, that won't have any impact on this, right?
@DanielTilkin I just changed it to be correct. I borrowed the rules from another market that I had. The rules are correct now.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a court places on the docket an accepted verdict form that finds Luigi Mangione guilty of at least one offense
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Act of Parliament is given royal assent that excludes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from possible succession to the throne of the United Kingdom
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to appoint someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law is passed that repeals the District of Columbia Home Rule Act
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law or set of laws is passed that includes all of the provisions that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has, as defined by the Congressional Research Service summary of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. That summary can be seen here:
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law or set of laws is passed that includes all of the provisions that the SAVE Act has, as defined by the Congressional Research Service summary of the SAVE Act. That summary can be seen here: https://web.archive.org/web/20260612100026/https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture to a majority for all legislative action whose threshold for cloture at the time the market was created is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn.
@AaronSimansky I take it Pituffik counts for the Greenland option?
This has been answered now in your comment.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve "Yes" if the monarch of the United Kingdom officially appoints someone other than Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.