What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
263
26kṀ110k
2100
90%
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
88%
Imane Khelif is intersex
88%
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
86%
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
83%
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
82%
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
81%
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
74%
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
74%
Santa is rigged
69%
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
55%
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
52%
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
51%
Dead Internet theory
49%
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
45%
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
43%
Groundhog Day is rigged
43%
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
42%
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
42%
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
41%
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy

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comprou Ṁ10 NO

@BoltonBailey to clarify, is this being defined as e.g. >90% of social media posts/comments being secret bots as of 2024?

@JamesF Steelman: contrails have a non-trivial impact on global warming. The EPA in 2009 declared that carbon dioxide was a "pollutant" under the Clean Air Act. This was controversial at the time, because "pollutant" at the time of act's passing was intended to gasses with direct, localized harm, like carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and sulfar dioxide, stuff that would colloquially be understood as "toxic chemicals". That language was codified by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.
So the water vapor in contrails causes global warming, and the EPA holds that gasses which cause global warming are "pollutants", and "pollutants" is what the EPA originally called the category of CO, SO2, and particulate matter, that the public might colloquially identify as "toxic chemicals".

@TheAllMemeingEye @JamesF a bunch of streamers would qualify

comprou Ṁ10 YES

@JamesF duplicates.

@Hakari Different last names.

@GG right, thanks.

@JamesF as of when? a date or at least a year is needed here.

comprou Ṁ5 YES

also @JamesF would it count if a cure has been discovered and synthesized but hasn't been released yet because it is currently in lengthy clinical trials?

>The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

Bishops (i.e. "elites") literally decided what was & wasn't canon, backed by Emperors, in the late 4th & early 5th Cs. AD. They rejected the popular Gnostic texts as heresy. This isn't really a "conspiracy theory."

I am hereby stating that I created answers in this market to discredit all the other ones (not the ones that were also jokes). The point is to make fun of people who (pretend to) give greater-than-epsilon probability to this BS.

Some of my psyop answers were caught and N/A'd (Jews control at least one nation's government, upside-down Australia isn't real). But others were left up, including this one.

@JamesF or @mods, please resolve this as YES.

If my options alone are not enough to resolve, just look at the market as a whole. Like, after the very first usage which was unfortunately serious, Rationalussy has always been a meme, and so is the corresponding answer here.

Some people made serious options about the Hellenistic era, or the Sentinelese people, and others ran away with them in meme options.

It's time to accept it: some answers here are, and have always been, psyops to discredit all the very serious and scholarly theories espoused by other answers.

@BrunoParga I am not sure your individual actions count as a “psyop” though

@mariopasquato well, we have to see what the market creator thinks. I am positive it counts.

@BrunoParga fair enough, but by this metric wearing a hat to hide your bald head on a tinder pic is a psyop. A very limited one

@mariopasquato A very grave one

@Lilemont it’s called hatfishing

@mariopasquato I love that it has come to asking precisely this question precisely on this market, but...

What would it take to convince you?

@mariopasquato I'd also still love to hear from @JamesF.

@BrunoParga I would define a psyop as an organized effort by an entity that can mobilize significant resources. Where I set the bar is immaterial because OP will certainly set it somewhere else

@mariopasquato bet you they won't

@Vesperstelo Could you be more specific? "Intersex" is a quite vague term which, today or in the next 75 years, could easily be moved around to apply to most female boxers.

@marvingardens I can't believe I'm saying this in the batshit conspiracy theory market, but

to be fair, it seems reasonable to assume this resolves based on the definition at the time of question creation.

I mean, it's not like this market exists for anything but personal signaling anyway.

@BrunoParga Today, intersex is quite a vague term.

@marvingardens the definition of "having mismatched or ambiguous karyotype, internal and external reproductive organs and/or assignment at birth" seems sufficient for the market.

do you have some kind of authority over this market

if Khelif is shown to have traits which don't match that definition of intersex and do match other definitions of intersex, what do you think is going to happen here? will everyone be like "ah well Bruno said this once earlier in the comments so that's the real criterion"?

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