
What conspiracy theories will be proven correct by 2100. The conspiracy theory must have been true in 2024 so if the US government gets aliens after 2024 but didn't have them before it doesn't count. Please add your own conspiracy theories. I will be lenient in what is considered a conspiracy theory. If something is widely considered to be true in 2100 it will count as a yes resolution but to resolve beforehand it must be definitively proven and verified by multiple news sources. anything not proven true by 2100 will resolve no. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. In will not bet on this market in case of controversy
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@BoltonBailey to clarify, is this being defined as e.g. >90% of social media posts/comments being secret bots as of 2024?
@JamesF Steelman: contrails have a non-trivial impact on global warming. The EPA in 2009 declared that carbon dioxide was a "pollutant" under the Clean Air Act. This was controversial at the time, because "pollutant" at the time of act's passing was intended to gasses with direct, localized harm, like carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and sulfar dioxide, stuff that would colloquially be understood as "toxic chemicals". That language was codified by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.
So the water vapor in contrails causes global warming, and the EPA holds that gasses which cause global warming are "pollutants", and "pollutants" is what the EPA originally called the category of CO, SO2, and particulate matter, that the public might colloquially identify as "toxic chemicals".
also @JamesF would it count if a cure has been discovered and synthesized but hasn't been released yet because it is currently in lengthy clinical trials?
>The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Bishops (i.e. "elites") literally decided what was & wasn't canon, backed by Emperors, in the late 4th & early 5th Cs. AD. They rejected the popular Gnostic texts as heresy. This isn't really a "conspiracy theory."
I am hereby stating that I created answers in this market to discredit all the other ones (not the ones that were also jokes). The point is to make fun of people who (pretend to) give greater-than-epsilon probability to this BS.
Some of my psyop answers were caught and N/A'd (Jews control at least one nation's government, upside-down Australia isn't real). But others were left up, including this one.
If my options alone are not enough to resolve, just look at the market as a whole. Like, after the very first usage which was unfortunately serious, Rationalussy has always been a meme, and so is the corresponding answer here.
Some people made serious options about the Hellenistic era, or the Sentinelese people, and others ran away with them in meme options.
It's time to accept it: some answers here are, and have always been, psyops to discredit all the very serious and scholarly theories espoused by other answers.
@BrunoParga fair enough, but by this metric wearing a hat to hide your bald head on a tinder pic is a psyop. A very limited one
@mariopasquato I love that it has come to asking precisely this question precisely on this market, but...
What would it take to convince you?
@BrunoParga I would define a psyop as an organized effort by an entity that can mobilize significant resources. Where I set the bar is immaterial because OP will certainly set it somewhere else
@Vesperstelo Could you be more specific? "Intersex" is a quite vague term which, today or in the next 75 years, could easily be moved around to apply to most female boxers.
@marvingardens I can't believe I'm saying this in the batshit conspiracy theory market, but
to be fair, it seems reasonable to assume this resolves based on the definition at the time of question creation.
I mean, it's not like this market exists for anything but personal signaling anyway.
@marvingardens the definition of "having mismatched or ambiguous karyotype, internal and external reproductive organs and/or assignment at birth" seems sufficient for the market.

