Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
6
1kṀ1282Jun 30
94%
2T+
93%
1.5T+
50%
2.5T+
42%
3T+
38%
3.5T+
25%
4T+
22%
4.5T+
17%
5T+
Resolvido
YES1T+
Total parameters
At market creation (2025-11-11), the largest open weight model is Kimi K2 by Moonshot, with 1T total parameters.
This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models. For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
Esta pergunta Ă© gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?
25% chance
Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before April 1, 2026?
92% chance
By March 2026, will 3+ prominent US politicians advocate for banning open-weight AI models?
9% chance
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
21% chance
Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?
9% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
50% chance
Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?
40% chance
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
44% chance
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
1GW AI training run before 2027?
81% chance