Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
12
125Ṁ189
Sep 29
55%
OpenAI
50%
Anthropic
59%
Google DeepMind
51%
xAI
74%
Other

This market resolves to the AI company that releases the most impactful new AI model before September 30, 2026.

Impact will be determined based on a combination of:

- Public adoption and usage

- Media coverage

- Industry influence

- Performance improvements compared to previous models

- Community and expert consensus

If multiple major models are released, the resolution will be based on which model is generally considered to have had the greatest overall impact by September 30, 2026.

Eligible companies include OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, and any company covered by the "Other" option.

Resolution source: major AI news outlets, company announcements, benchmark results, and general industry consensus.

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A few questions on the resolution criteria:

  1. Do you plan to weight each of these categories roughly equally? Or leaning more towards heavier weights on actual performance?

  2. How are you going to measure industry influence, media coverage, public adoption/usage? I can note there is a market that has been closed and unresolved for over six months because of uncertainty on how to count users, so good to get ahead of this sooner than later lol. For media and industry I assume mostly a qualitative and vibes assessment? I.E everyone on twitter/x in industry is talking about one model much more than another in your view, OR are you going to go into search popularity, polls, etc?

  3. For all these measures, over what timeline are you going to judge? If we have Fable (sort of ) releasing now; it's popularity, media coverage, etc is going to be weighted to the near term, while a new gemini model in the fall would likely overtake those measures if you are looking at those things in the fall. Which is to say seems very difficult to objectively measure things or for traders to be able to make educated bets unless we narrow down to some real numbers that traders can look at. (this is likely mostly unimportant if you are just heavily weighting on real performance with a touch of qualitative interpretation for your other categories, if equal weight then this seems like a bit of a wild guess for anyone)

@ShaneBo holy this is some crazy yapping

@ShaneBo Imma think abt it

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