Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if Wagerup's alumina production in 2026 exceeds 2.5 million tonnes (2,500 kt). Resolution will be determined by Alcoa's official 2026 annual production figures, which should be disclosed in quarterly earnings reports or annual sustainability reports available on Alcoa's investor relations website (https://news.alcoa.com).
Background
Wagerup Refinery has a capacity of 2.9 million tonnes per year and is the second largest producer of alumina in the AWAC global joint venture between Alumina Limited and Alcoa. In Q3 2025, alumina production increased 4 percent sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons, primarily due to higher output from Australian refineries with lower maintenance in the quarter. An efficiency project aims to enable the two existing refinery production units to achieve approximately 3.3 million tonnes per annum, up from the current licensed capacity of 2.85 Mtpa.
Considerations
The 2.5 Mt threshold represents the refinery's current maximum licensed production capacity. Exceeding this level would require sustained operational performance above baseline capacity or completion of efficiency upgrades. Maintenance schedules, equipment reliability, and energy availability could impact whether production reaches this target in 2026.
1,000Wagerup is already running above 2.5 Mt and is strategically important to Alcoa’s post‑Kwinana Australian footprint, so the main risks are regulatory or operational shocks rather than baseline production trends. This looks modestly underpriced above 65% given present information.