This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.
Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
Context. Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt with modest expansion underway at Pinjarra (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil). The 2.6 Mt strike for 2028 sits at roughly the company's run-rate; under the modest Pinjarra/Alumar ramp, 2028 production could come in slightly above this strike, making this a probability-anchored just above 50%.
Resolution sources (priority order):
Alcoa Corporation Q4 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases
Alcoa Corporation 10-K filing (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001675149
International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/
Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation
Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)
Upstream supply:
Producers (CY2028):
Electricity hubs (CY2028):
Same market, other calendar year:
1,000