This question asks if there will be a drone strike carried out by the US Military on Mexican soil before the end of 2026. Must be publicly reported on before the close date to count.
Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Joint US/Mexican operations: Whether a joint operation counts depends on the level of US involvement, particularly the nationality of the drone operator/launcher (whoever "pushed the button"). US arms sales/loans to Mexico or US intel provided to Mexico for independent Mexican strikes would not count.
Mexican-flagged vessels: Strikes on Mexico-flagged vessels do not count as strikes on "Mexican soil" - the term "soil" refers to land only.
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@BoltonBailey If a drone strike on Mexican soil is a joint operation between US and Mexican forces, does it count? Also, is it considered Mexican soil if it is an ocean going vessel flying the Mexican flag?
@EricMoyer I think if a joint operation of US / Mexican forces did a drone strike, it would depend on the involvement of the two countries, and probably heavily on the nationality of the operator/launcher of the drone/whoever "pushed the button". US arms company / Military selling/loaning a drone to Mexican forces who then used it independently for a strike would not count, nor would US giving intel to Mexico who then uses it for strike.
I would not consider a Mexico-flagged vessel to be "Mexican soil", even if it is officially Mexican territory, soil means land, just like "continent" means land.
I don't see a reason why the US would become so hostile to Mexico that the former would literally militarily attack the latter. If this actually happened I think the world (especially the Americas) would probably go nuts and global sentiment might even turn against the US even more quickly.
@duck_master The US might attack a target with the blessing of the Mexican government. The question is whether it will happen "on Mexican soil" and whether the actor will be the "US Military."