@traders, here is the market for next year:

/dfish/total-cases-of-measles-reported-in-AQCghSLP9E

5500 is within 900 of the last update, with 11.14 weeks to go. That's only about 80/week. We haven't seen a single week with fewer than 80 cases since week 30, back in July. The 2.5 months since then have averaged just over 200/week, and it's been accelerating. At this point, even 6000 (just over 125/week average for the rest of the year... or five weeks at the rate of the current rage assuming no more acceleration) should have been well over 50%!

@dfish resolves yes also

@dfish maybe add some more buckets for 7000, 7500, etc?

@LietKynes The difference between 6,500 and 10, 000 is small but I added 8,000 to provide more resolution

Seven weeks since the hockey stick, averaging over 200/week (two fell below that but not by much) at honestly a weirdly consistent rate. 13 weeks to go. Valid to be cautious about 6000, if you think it'll level off; 4500 and 5000 were way underpriced.

@dfish also resolves yes

@dfish this can resolve yes

@traders here is a related market

/dfish/will-the-recorded-us-measles-cases

Right on the edge.

@traders I added an option for 4000 cases.

@dfish can you add more options? 3600 3700 3800 3900 4100 4200 4300 4400

@JasonMendoza2008 can do. Would you mind adding some liquidity?

Ooof that chart... 📈

@dfish resolves yes

@LietKynes thank you

The reported cases are at 997, just below the 1,000 case threshold.

@traders, we have exceeded the 750 case threshold. Up, up, and away!

@traders, by request, I added options for higher cases. Please see options for 20k, 50k, and 100k.

Please add some more higher numbers

@Jack1, what do you think about 50k and 100k?

@traders, I added a new option for x ≥ 3500.

@dfish want to go ahead and get something low(er) probability added? Like 10k?

@EvanDaniel sounds like a good idea. I added options for 5k and 10k.

@dfish ... 20k? 50k?