State of the Union Address (SOTU)
Address to a Joint Session of Congress
Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the address, official and unofficial transcripts, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.
This is meant to be a fun market. If you have any question about the interpretation of an item ask before participating in it, no exceptions. Participate at your own risk.
If the Address does not happen, all pertinent items resolve NO.
All added options, if not easily resolved default to the owner, if unresponsive, will N/A.
I will try to resolve props as quickly as possible, however, this may not always be the case. If something does or does not happen and the question is not resolved in a timely manner, do not interpret it as a ruling one way or another and have it influence your decisions. I've either missed it or need to do further research after the SOTU to confirm. I will attempt to have everything resolved on the night of the event, but give me a few days to take care of anything I may have missed. Thank you!
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may not be able to provide live resolutions during the SOTU address due to travel. Resolutions should be completed within a few days after the event. Moderators may assist with resolutions if necessary.
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If I say "He mentioned the mayor of NYC," and you reply, "Oh, Mamdani?," & I say "No," I'd sound insane. That's how this market has been resolved.
If what you mean is, "says the exact words _______," then "mentions" is the wrong word to use. What you mean is, "says ______," or "mentions ______ explicitly by name only."
Trump’s State of the Union Speech: Full Transcript - The New York Times
@MT_Hammer Trump said "beautiful" 8-9 times, depending on whether you count "beautifully," but regardless, market should resolve to YES
@RebeccaLively Trump said "Tonight I’m demanding the full and immediate restoration of all funding for the border security, homeland security of the United States and also for helping people clean up their snow." I certaintly think this should resolve "Trump demands funding for DHS" to YES
@Bandors The transcript has "great" 41 times, a lot more than 10, so should resolve to YES
@shankypanky I'm pretty sure Trump does not mention a governor or mayor by name anywhere in the Transcript
@Jack1 Neither "hoax" nor "woke" are in the transcript, but Trump does say "Obamacare." It's a bit ambiguous whether this counts as mentioning Obama, but I think it should count - I mean Trump literally said "Obama" and I think obamacare is a large part of Obama's legacy either way, so saying Obamacare is directly referring to and mentioning Obama.
I need your resolution for my own, just woke up.
@JoeandSeth Was right! They were clapping in responce to the hockey team - AP's angle got it super clear you can see all 4 of their hands.
@Dssc wow sharp eye - I just went back to the AP video and caught a quick moment of her clapping after the hockey team came in. I'll resolve that one yes.
@yeeta I commented on this below.
https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/state-of-the-union-address-2026#1wd1zya2fcb
@ChurlishGambit I assumed this was "Prediction Market" since it's about a PM Exchange or a PM itself?
ask @realDonaldTrump bc he added it
@shankypanky ...it doesn't mean "exchange with a Prime Minister?" oh boy
I can't ask him he blocked me for wanting clarification on a market
@bens I'm assuming "UFO or Aliens" refers to like extraterrestial aliens and not immigrants