State of the Union Address 2026
244
18kį¹€57k
Mar 6
1.5%
AOC is in attendance
98.9%
State of the Union address is given by Trump
77%
Biden is mentioned by Donald trump
2%
2026 State of the Union address is canceled
31%
Elon Musk is in attendance
68%
Greenland is mentioned by Donald trump
71%
President will get heckled or booed
26%
Non-US World Leader in attendance
1.1%
No elected Democrats in attendance
3%
Trump goes to sleep, faints or has medical event
60%
Woke is mentioned by Donald trump
97%
Jd Vance and Mike Johnson are sitting behind Donald trump
41%
Clarence Thomas is in attendance
28%
Zohran/Mamdani is mentioned by trump
13%
Epstein is mentioned by trump
9%
Every current Supreme Court justice in attendance
1.3%
Designated Survivor(s) Assumes Presidency within 48hr of speech
47%
Putin will be mentioned by name
6%
AI video is used
76%
5 or more people coordinate outfits

State of the Union Address (SOTU)

Address to a Joint Session of Congress

Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the address, official and unofficial transcripts, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.

This is meant to be a fun market. If you have any question about the interpretation of an item ask before participating in it, no exceptions. Participate at your own risk.

If the Address does not happen, all pertinent items resolve NO.

All added options, if not easily resolved default to the owner, if unresponsive, will N/A.

I will try to resolve props as quickly as possible, however, this may not always be the case. If something does or does not happen and the question is not resolved in a timely manner, do not interpret it as a ruling one way or another and have it influence your decisions. I've either missed it or need to do further research after the SOTU to confirm. I will attempt to have everything resolved on the night of the event, but give me a few days to take care of anything I may have missed. Thank you!

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You have a few hours left to lock in determinations of how well this market did.

https://manifold.markets/AlanTennant/how-predictive-is-the-state-of-the-UPAAqlqlps?r=QWxhblRlbm5hbnQ

comprou į¹€20 YES

@256 to clarify about the answers i added, id like to resolve them based on the Polymarket resolution.
> Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Has it happened yet?

@AlanTennant 9:00 p.m. ET today

@ian thanks, a few hours yet

comprou į¹€5 YES

@Jack1 does it have to be the same brand or is similar appearance fine

@Qoiuoiuoiu has to be exact same from viewing perspective. So similar wouldn’t be enough, but if they all looked the exact same shade of red for example, can resolve yes.

@10thOfficial President Pro Tempore of the Senate?

@LietKynes as a part of Palestine, would mention of Gaza count? Does the word Palestine have to be specifically said?

@FecalAbhuman I’d say it’s less messy if you or someone else adds the Gaza option. So no, only Palestine counts

@LietKynes Good idea but you aren't the market creator so no offense I'll rely on their judgement for what counts.

@FecalAbhuman of course, whatever the market creator prefers, but since you tagged me…

@FecalAbhuman but liet added the answer? So I think liets judgement does matter.

Market rules:

All added options, if not easily resolved default to the owner

I think all mention markets should have require the actual word being spoken. Similar shouldnt count.

@Jack1 I’ve seen both. Just simpler to resolve if stricter.

@Jack1 oh true I didn't see that, thanks

comprou į¹€1 YES

Does being in uniform constitute coordinating outfits?

Created a prop market for the counter-rally nearby:

On my answers, ā€œmentionedā€ means mentioned by Trump during his speech

comprou į¹€10 NO

@Jack1 The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the State of the Union address until the moment he finishes his address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.

He’ll probably clap for everything trump says

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