Trump renewed his ultimatum. What will be the outcome of this one?
Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Major escalation by X will resolve Yes even if the escalation was done in retaliation to the other side escalating first (i.e., it is not limited to initiation of hostilities).
Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'Ultimatum is extended' answer will be resolved based on how things look after 4/6 10:05 AM.
Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'ultimatum expires with no significant change' answer refers to the ultimatum after all extensions have been exhausted, not just the original ultimatum.
Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting to see how the situation fully develops before resolving major escalation answers, to avoid premature resolution.
Update 2026-04-07: The "announces a deal" market requires that the announcement say that a deal has been reached, not that they have a framework or rough draft of a deal.
Update 2026-04-07: "Trump announces a deal" and "Market 1" are resolving to yes in reference to the two-week ceasefire for Hormuz part of this tweet:
Update 2026-04-07: "Trump announces a deal that turns out to be real." is resolving to yes in reference to the two-week ceasefire and this confirmation from Iran:
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why the probability for "Trump walks back the ultimatum" is so high? it's not like he gave up on it, no?
@JoshSnider resolves YES, a ceasefire deal was announced, meeting the criteria of the tweeted ultimatum
@someoneR5c8l he could still announce another deal that turns out to be fake, doesn't have to be the same deal.
@Balasar that's too creative of an interpretation imo. The probabilities of "turns out to be real" and "turns out to be fake" are better summed up to 100%
God fucking damn it.
How???
This is crazy.
@Balasar "Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated."
This is pretty optimistic, but it's still announcing a basis to negotiate a deal, not a deal actually being reached.
@JoshSnider the deal that was announced was an agreement to a two-week ceasefire, not a peace deal. The criteria does not specify what deal has to be reached, or even if it is a real deal.
@JoshSnider market 1? he claims concessions have been made by iran through pakistan and that justifies him extending the deadline by 2 weeks
@minion7777777777 Okay, I'm resolving market 1 and the announce a deal on the grounds that Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire deal in exchange for Iran reopening Hormuz.
@Balasar he can't keep TACOing. every time he does, next time he has to make an even bigger threat to then TACO out of
@Balasar NYTimes: Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan said in a social media post on Tuesday evening that diplomacy to stop the war had taken a “step forward” from a “critical, sensitive stage.” The statement came after the prime minister of Pakistan, which has been acting as an intermediary in the search for a peace deal, appealed to President Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.
