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Large states redistrict before 2026 midterms?
19
1kṀ17k
Nov 3
3%
None of Texas, California, and New York
0.8%
Texas, but neither California nor New York
4%
California or New York, but not Texas
92%
Texas, as well as California or New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

  • Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until the midterms (November 2026) to resolve this market, rather than resolving when redistricting events occur earlier.

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@traders Have the redistrictings "happened" such that this market should resolve? Conditions could still change between now and the midterms (i.e. there's a lawsuit against Calif seeking to block prop 50), but the wording on this seems to be for redistricting events, rather than the final state on election day.

@DanHomerick my plan was to wait for the midterms to resolve

California passed Prop 50. As I understand it, if Texas does their mid-census redistricting, that will trigger California to do theirs. Not really sure of Texas' status.

comprou Ṁ50 NO

NY has no technical ability to redistrict before 2027.

Pessoas também estão operando

Which states will enact (further) mid-decade redistricting prior to the 2030 redistricting?
Virginia redistricting before midterms?
78% chance
Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?
94% chance
Will Texas use its 2021 map for the 2026 midterms?
10% chance
will maryland redistrict by the end of 2026?
37% chance
Citizens Redistricting Commission resumes congressional district maps in 2031?
45% chance
If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?
90% chance
US state adopts shortest splitline algorithm for redistricting before 2030?
16% chance
Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
89% chance
What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms
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