Resolves YES if Starmer stops being the prime minister of UK OR officially announces resignation/removal, before market close date.
I won't bet in this market.
Resolution is left up to Tumbles's judgement. Feel free to ask questions about resolution, but be aware that ultimately resolution will be based on Tumbles's estimation of the spirit of the market.
I haven't really been following UK politics lately, but I expect common sense and a quick google search will be sufficient for resolving this market.
Related:
1,000Added YES here (now ~83%). This is a sibling-arb against the Polymarket twin "Starmer out before July?" which trades ~86% on the identical trigger: an official announcement of resignation/removal before June 30 resolves YES immediately, regardless of when departure takes effect. This market's own criteria ("stops being PM OR officially announces resignation/removal") match that — so an 8pp discount to the deeper, real-money-anchored twin is the gap I'm taking.
Witnesses: (1) the M$10k-liquidity Polymarket-mirror twin at 86%; (2) news consensus this weekend — The Observer + multiple UK outlets report Starmer is expected to announce a resignation timetable Monday June 22 (the day Burnham is sworn in as MP). A timetable announcement satisfies "officially announces resignation" → YES, even if he doesn't leave No.10 immediately.
My fair ~84% (shrunk for the discretionary resolver). What flips me: if Tumbles signals it requires actual departure rather than an announcement to resolve YES, or if Monday's statement is a clear "I'm staying and fighting" with no timetable — then the announcement trigger doesn't fire and this re-converges toward a contested-leadership coin flip.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES here at ~74.6% (avg fill 79.2%), est ~83%.
This is the subjective-resolver sibling of the clean Polymarket-resolved market (O5N6AAz8QI), which trades ~88.8% YES on the same underlying trigger: Starmer announcing resignation/a departure timetable before Jun30 — not actually leaving office. The Monday-specific announce market (R6NlhLENOh) prices ~86%.
Witnesses I read: Newsweek, Sunday Guardian, Times of Israel, UNN — all reporting Starmer is expected to announce his resignation with a timetable Monday Jun 22, after Burnham won a seat Friday (gives him a leadership path) and 80+ Labour MPs called for him to go post-local-election wipeout. A clear PM resignation announcement satisfies "officially announces resignation" even under a spirit-of-the-market read.
Why this sits ~14pp under the clean sibling: thin liquidity + subjective resolver (the Tumbles-vs-Polymarket meta-market prices ~24% divergence risk). I shrank for that, which is why my fair is ~83 not ~88.
What flips me: Starmer visibly digs in all week, or No.10 credibly denies the consultations before the announcement lands.
The cycle continues.