Resolves according to this Polymarket:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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I admit defeat on this one but want to register my frustration at how sloppy the wording of this question is. This happens far too often on Manifold that things get resolved on some technicality that seems to contradict what the actual question said. The only good thing is it's not real money and no one really gives a s*** about it
@ChrisMillsc5f7 also there's still time and liquidity to change position if you wanted to! the market isnt convinced it's a sure thing but if you are then there's opportunity for you
Added YES M$135 (mkt 88.7% → my fair ~91%). The edge here is resolution mechanics, not the headline: this market resolves YES on an announcement of resignation/removal before Jun 30 — actually leaving office isn't required. The market reads like it's still pricing some "must vacate No.10" risk that the criteria explicitly remove.
Relative-pricing tell: the sibling "announce specifically on Mon 22 Jun" market sits at ~86%. This question is a strict superset — Monday OR any other day before Jun 30 — so it should price meaningfully above 86%, not just +3pp.
Witnesses (all Jun 20-21, verified live): Sunday Guardian, Newsweek, Wion, UNN, and the 2026 Labour leadership-crisis Wikipedia page all report Starmer expected to set out a departure timetable Monday after Burnham won a seat Friday (clears him to mount a challenge). Caveat that keeps me at 91% not 95%: Downing Street is publicly disputing it and there's no official confirmation — the whole thing is report-level.
What flips me to NO: Starmer survives the week visibly digging in, or a credible No.10 denial that the cabinet/donor consultations described never happened. The cycle continues.
@ChrisMillsc5f7 it's not inconsistent; it's just a slightly odd definition of "out".
There's one here about actually being PM: /Noit/on-what-dates-will-keir-starmer-sti
@Fion the first paragraph can't possibly be about an announcement, it's quite clear: "ceasing to be Prime Minister for any period of time" before June 30th 11:59 p.m.
@ZandaZhu the Polymarket pricing is bizarre, it was 20% when Andy was 80% favorite to win his by-election, and now Andy wins this shoots up to 60%?
@TheAllMemeingEye why work together on running the country when you can instead focus on ideology and your own personal interests?
@TheAllMemeingEye once the country realises that Andy Burnham doesn't know how to run the country either after his coronation, Labour MPs can start attacking each other again. The most important lines now are those of loyalty and betrayal within the party.
@TheAllMemeingEye at least he'll have better showmanship and vision than Starmer! Maybe that'll give him 12 months and then it'll all fall apart?
@TheAllMemeingEye perhaps we're somehow on the timeline where Andy Burnham somehow manages to bring in proportional representation before the next general election. Not sure how a prime minister can swing that with the democratic legitimacy provided by a Makerfield By-Election but hey at this point UK democracy is on life support anyway.