Israel enters into a new war in 2026?
10
1ká¹€643
Dec 31
40%
chance

Declared wars resolve YES.

Major operations that are not official declared resolve partial at 50%. Examples of past conflicts that, if they'd started in 2026, would count: Six-Day War, First (1982) Lebanon War, Operation Protective Edge (2014). I will use my best judgment as to what counts as a major operation. If it feels like an edge case, I'll resolve somewhere between 0% and 50%.

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