Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: Rejected: Not unique (overlaps nuclear weapon theme in existing options 8-9), low uncertainty (near-certain NO, boring dead money), vague/not concrete ('non-offensive purposes,' unspecified canal/actor), and appears to be a low-effort troll referencing fringe/meme ideas.
You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
Recent FCC Chairman threats (March 14, 2026) over 'distortions' in Iran war coverage create timely uncertainty about escalation to actual revocation, offering a unique US domestic media angle amid the conflict.
@M142857 #5 Brent crude tops $200/bbl by April 1, 2026 This option resolves YES if the official daily settlement price of the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract (as published by ICE Futures Europe, or reported equivalently by authoritative sources such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trading Economics, or Bloomberg) exceeds $200 per barrel on any trading day before April 1, 2026 (UTC). It resolves NO otherwise. Only official settlement (closing) prices count, not intraday trading highs or lows. Evidence must come from the official ICE settlement report or equivalent reliable financial data sources confirming the settlement price.
Updated: Brent crude tops $200/bbl by April 1, 2026 -> Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
@JoshSnider Your option was accepted and added as: US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
This is a timely and unique proposition amid recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island's military sites and speculation about potential seizure or occupation. It explores ground presence at this critical oil export hub, distinct from general US entry into Iran (#1) or attacks on oil terminals (#23). High uncertainty with strong betting interest.
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion is not relevant to the core Iran-US conflict theme. Iran's ties to Ukraine are indirect (supplying drones to Russia), and while recent threats exist due to Ukraine aiding anti-Iran efforts in the Middle East, a direct Iranian attack on Ukraine is extremely unlikely (<10% chance) amid its focus on the US war, making it a boring dead-money NO bet. It duplicates the concept of distant attacks (e.g., on US soil) without adding a unique angle.
You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
Extremely timely amid today's US strikes obliterating military targets on Kharg Island while explicitly sparing and threatening its critical oil terminals if Iran blocks Hormuz passage. Unique angle on potential rapid escalation with real uncertainty; resolvable via major news outlets.
@MT_Hammer #18 Iran launches a drone attack on US soil by December 31, 2026 This option resolves YES if there is credible evidence from reliable sources (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW) that the Iranian government or its military directly launches at least one drone that attacks (e.g., strikes, explodes on, or causes damage via kinetic impact) a target on US soil by December 31, 2026 (UTC). It resolves NO otherwise.
'US soil' means the land territory of the 50 US states, the District of Columbia (DC), and US territories/possessions (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands). This explicitly includes US territories beyond the 50 states. It excludes US embassies, consulates, and military bases overseas, as those are located on foreign soil despite US control or extraterritoriality claims. A drone must enter and attack within these areas; launches from US soil or non-attack flights (e.g., pure surveillance) do not count. Attribution must clearly be to Iran launching it, not proxies unless directly controlled by Iranian forces.
Updated: Iran launches a drone attack on US soil by December 31, 2026 -> Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
@hidetzugu #22 Iran inflicts widespread damage on Gulf state energy infrastructure by June 30, 2026 This option resolves YES if, by June 30, 2026 (UTC), there are credible reports from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, Bloomberg) or official statements/satellite imagery confirming that Iran—directly through its military or IRGC, or via proxies like Houthis under Iranian direction—has inflicted widespread physical damage on energy infrastructure (oil/gas fields, refineries, pipelines, storage tanks, export terminals/ports) in Gulf states (GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE).
'Widespread damage' means damage to multiple (≥3) major facilities, causing significant production/export disruption (e.g., ≥5% of affected state's capacity offline for ≥1 week or equivalent scale to 2019 Abqaiq attack across sites). Minor or isolated incidents (e.g., single drone hit with limited impact) do not qualify.
Evidence must clearly attribute the damage to Iranian actions and quantify the scale. Resolves NO if no such confirmation by deadline.
Updated: Iran inflicts widespread damage on Gulf state energy infrastructure by June 30, 2026 -> Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
@patrik Apparently the bot didn't take my suggestion and blocked me for a day. Do you think you can fix that for me?
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion overlaps with existing energy price options, such as #13 (US gas exceeding $5/gallon by June) and #17 (Brent crude above $100 more days than below March-Dec). The 'more days above a price threshold' mechanic applied to US gas prices is not a fundamentally unique concept, just a variant on the same theme.
You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.