If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
19
275Ṁ561Dec 31
55%
Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026
50%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
50%
Unconditional
49%
There is a US government shutdown in 2025
49%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
38%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
38%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
34%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
33%
The SAVE Act passes
Resolvido
N/AThere is no US government shutdown in 2025
Resolvido
N/ASupreme court allows Trump tariffs
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
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