If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]

350Ṁ1146

2029

80%

Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such.

17%

Extraterrestrial life.

16%

Anything genuninely supernatural (i.e. something a standard athiest physicalist would scoff at before this revelation)

15%

New fundamental science discovery.

13%

Extremely advanced but non-exotic non-AGI human technology, very far beyond current public knowledge (not just a few generations ahead).

13%

Interference/interaction from other universes or dimensions.

10%

Any explanation that appears to validate a religion with over 1 million followers.

Yudkowsky privately knew a worldview-shattering explanation was true in advance (and still made this bet for some reason).

Artificial intelligence.

Ancient terrestrial civilization.

Any explanation that appears to validate the simulation hypothesis.

Any religious/magical/paranormal explanation.

Time travel.

Entities from a traditional Abrahamic religion.

Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet

This market is independent to allow for overlapping answers, which will hopefully increase clarity and granularity and hopefully reduce controversy in resolution.

Any option that is a significant reason as to why Eliezer Yudkowsky lost the bet resolves YES. For example, "time-traveling AIs are responsible for UFO sightings" would resolve both "Time travel." and "Artificial intelligence." YES.

Resolves N/A if Yudkowsky wins the bet.

Resolution will be based on statements from Yudkowsky, RatsWrongAboutUAP, or clear consensus about the circumstances of the bet.

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