Not affected by the Kalshi market?

@FergusArgyll link?

@Irigi https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27

@FergusArgyll Heh the USG confirming aliens is very different from there actually being aliens.

@FergusArgyll Thank you. But it seems to be a different question. I can imagine the government announces that NASA found techno signatures, or something similar, which does not mean UFO have worldview shattering origins..

@Irigi Yeah for sure, and the dude could lie. I didn't think this would drop to 70% but I thought it would get affected

@FergusArgyll Gwern claims that many government officials genuinely believe in aliens, but only because of some kind of prank:

https://substack.com/@gwern/note/c-219401092?r=8ddtt

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah, I remember that article...

i don't think people are realizing how bad the loan fees are gonna hurt yet

@Robincvgr old loans were grandfathered, no? As in zero fees

@dgga that is true but there will still be new activity on this market

@Robincvgr it's not clear to me that the new loan system should be negative for yes on this market. if you're charged 5% interest but also get 5% interest on shares held, that nets to zero, same as before - no?

@draaglom you're charged 15% interest and get paid 5% interest. So the min value this market should trade at (given 2.5y to resolution) is 1/1.1^2.5 ≈ 79%.

On the other hand, lots of people who have spare cash sitting around might now opt to park it in this market, which exerts YES pressure.

Overall pretty unclear to me how this will play out. I was expecting a move towards NO but so far it's been a move towards YES (even after @Robincvgr's large trade).

@JonasVollmer right, thanks, I misread the announcement on my first pass

Now I just need to fight really really really hard to not reflexively press that loan button.

@spider

Thanks for all the free mana

https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/us-war-depts-big-ufo-lie

We need the voting here

@RenaoJedi ??

@notrealDonaldTrump to decide the resolution

@MyDreamIsHere2018 the resolution is the bet.

@KyleY who are the judges?

@RenaoJedi Yudkowsky initially and the lesswrong community if disputed: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

It's time for a BS Detector blog post on the VASCO paper.