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If a famous person bets on the famous person market, who will it be?
23
175Ṁ2397
Apr 1
1.5%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1.2%
Aella
4%
CGPGrey
0.8%
Tressie McMillan Cottom
2%
Richard Hanania
1.7%
Dwarkesh Patel
89%
Other

This market: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt

The person must cause the market to resolve to YES. If multiple famous people bet, it will resolve to the one who traded first. If multiple answers refer to the same person, it will resolve to the one added first, assuming that person placed the first trade which caused the market to resolve to YES.

Resolves N/A if the linked market resolves to anything other than YES/100%.

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@Robincvgr Did Dwarkesh do a podcast on Manifold, or on prediction markets?

I'm remembering last time, with Lex

(and coincidentally the last time I was early on the right answer)

comprouṀ100 NO

@bens why did you NO this?

vendeu Ṁ105 NO

@MattCWilson I contain multitudes

comprou Ṁ2 YES

@bens

@snazzlePop it's fine more profit for the TMC true believers

comprou Ṁ50 YES

i don’t think either eliezer or aella are eligible by the market’s criteria

@brod not currently. But it is possible that others could make non vandalizing amendments to their Wikipedia pages

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