How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?
16
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Market closes at the time the last rocket from the Falcon 9-family has launched, per the criteria at https://manifold.markets/ianminds/when-will-the-last-spacex-falcon-9. I.e. if a Falcon rocket comes out of retirement to stop an asteroid or something, this market will not be reopened ;-)
Falcon Heavy and any other as of yet undeveloped future derivatives will count for this market.
Initial value set at 300 per this ancient tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008.
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How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
How many launches will SpaceX have in November?
How many Falcon 9/Heavy launches will SpaceX conduct in October 2026?
Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
1% chance
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