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By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?
35
1kṀ3199
2030
0.8%
<=2025
4%
2026
25%
2027
24%
2028
13%
2029
6%
2030
5%
2031
3%
2032
3%
2033
3%
2034
13%
>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
Ordenar por:

@MilfordHammerschmidt Need a resolution on <=2025.

@TheOtherKC How?

@MilfordHammerschmidt Like from a UI perspective.

comprou Ṁ60 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

@12c498e yup

comprou Ṁ4 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

aberto a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order

@12c498e yup

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
75% chance
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
-6% 1d42% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
-8% 1d57% chance
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
4% chance
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
10% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
37% chance
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
31% chance
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
69% chance
Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
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