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By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?
25
1kṀ2624
2035
1%
<=2025
9%
2026
18%
2027
14%
2028
13%
2029
9%
2030
8%
2031
5%
2032
4%
2033
4%
2034
15%
>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
32% chance
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
73% chance
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
18% chance
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
40% chance
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
69% chance
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
23% chance
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
46% chance
Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
69% chance
Ordenar por:
comprou Ṁ60 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

@12c498e yup

comprou Ṁ4 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

aberto a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order

@12c498e yup

Pessoas também estão operando

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
32% chance
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
-6% 1d73% chance
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
18% chance
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
40% chance
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
69% chance
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
23% chance
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
46% chance
Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
69% chance
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