By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US? | Axel

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By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

19

1kṀ1041

2030

55%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?

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I am pretty sure Ascend 950 sells for only 50k yuan or $7322, despite having half of H100's flops

there definitely exist a GPU with much smaller flops/$ than this

https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1997013150072557759

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Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

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