This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me. I reserve the right to N/A the market within the first hour as I adjust liquidity.
Notes:
For the sake of this market, model releases are only available in the U.S. (ex. Claude Fable 5) will count as widely available for the purposes of this market.
Previous Months:
/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases
/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases
1,000Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Polymarket has roughly half the odds for next Fable, and it seems to cover slightly more possibilities (i.e. if they call it Fable 6.0) - someone should arbitrage this. Polymarket has around $100k volume if I'm reading it right, so I'd bet on it being more correct than Manifold and I'd recommend betting Manifold down to Polymarket's rates - someone just needs to compare the fine print between both markets, if you want to be ~certain.
@ikoukas what model resolves qwen 3.8? I'm very confused bc the smaller 3.8 model isn't released yet, it was just talked abt?
