Last month: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during April 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.
Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For DeepSeek V4, both V4-Lite and V4 Full (and any other V4 variants) count toward resolution.
Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Haiku 4.6 has been added as a tracked model for this market.
Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Mythos has been added as a tracked model for this market.
Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Mythos will resolve YES if the model the leak was referring to is released, even if it is not officially named "Claude Mythos" — resolution is at the creator's discretion/best judgment.
Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT-5.4 Cyber does not count toward resolution because it is not widely available (limited/restricted access does not qualify).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,295 | |
| 2 | Ṁ391 | |
| 3 | Ṁ375 | |
| 4 | Ṁ230 | |
| 5 | Ṁ198 |
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@traders All options have been resolved. Let me know if I missed anything, and join next month's market! https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
@traders All options have been resolved. Let me know if I missed anything, and join next month's market! https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
@traders NEW MONTH, NEW MARKET! (now with more options)
https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
@prismatic regarding https://openai.com/index/scaling-trusted-access-for-cyber-defense/, this does not count because 5.4 Cyber is not "widely" available.
Edit: [dumb request]