Each team starts the tournament with a predefined goal handicap.
At the end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, each team's final score will be calculated as:
Goals Scored + Handicap
The team with the highest adjusted total wins this market.
If two or more teams are tied on adjusted goals, the tie will be broken by the earliest goal scored in any match during the tournament (measured in minutes and seconds after kick-off). The team with the earlier goal ranks higher.
Goals scored in penalty shootouts do not count.
Resolves YES for the team that finishes with the highest adjusted total (Goals Scored + Handicap) after applying the tie-breaker if necessary. All other teams resolve NO.
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/Tantalost/meta-market-winners-stage-of-goals
At first, I thought the probabilities would be fairly obvious. After running a number of simulated tournaments, I found myself revising several of them quite a bit from what I initially expected.
I won't spoil my reasoning here, but the interaction between handicap goals and tournament progression turned out to be more interesting than I expected.
Curious to see where traders disagree.
@Zeolite
Yeah, it looks unusual right now with all those tiny probability bars. Looking forward to some crazy moves after a few strong performances in the opening games. And even bigger swings later in the tournament ;)
Will the winner of the "Most Goals (+ Handicap)" market be eliminated in the group stage (Yes/No)?. Thinking about it. Or at which stage?