As of February 2026, the Trump administration has been actively pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Multiple envoys have been sent to both Moscow and Kyiv. However, no formal negotiation framework has been agreed upon yet, making the outcome genuinely uncertain over the next few weeks.
This market resolves YES if official, government level peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are publicly confirmed and take place before March 10, 2026. A simple phone call or informal contact does not count there must be a formal, structured negotiation session acknowledged by both parties or major international mediators .
This market resolves NO if no such talks occur before the deadline.
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The creator is the largest yes holder by the way, don't invest in this market.
@driss I applied a 7-day market resolution ban to your account for resolving this again. Please stop doing that.
@prismatic This market has been resolved YES. At the time of creation (February 22, 2026), the goal was to predict whether formal peace talks would take place before the deadline. It has since come to light that formal negotiation sessions (Abu Dhabi I, Abu Dhabi II, and Geneva on February 18) had already occurred before the market was posted. Since these sessions fully meet the criteria defined in the market description, the market resolves YES. Thank you all for participating.
@driss Since it was before the market was posted, how is this grounds for a YES resolution? It is common knowledge on markets that when you ask a question like this, it's for future-looking events, not the past (ie people bet on this market already knowing said talks happened, were betting if they are to happen again). If you wanted to clarify if there were any, you should have done so when the resolution terms were created. There is also a clear conflict of interest in that you are benefiting heavily from a YES resolution.
I believe that if you would like to pursue the theory that resolved this market, it should be N/Aed. Otherwise, keep it unresolved and let it play out over the next few weeks.
@driss I also see that you are new to the site, so apologies for my assumption that you would know standard practices. Nevertheless, I would like to see this resolved!
@prismatic I am sorry for the confusion around this market. After reviewing the situation, it became clear that formal peace talks had already taken place before this market was created (Abu Dhabi I, Abu Dhabi II, and Geneva on February 18). I had no choice but to resolve it YES, because nowhere in my market description did I specify that only talks occurring after the market launch would be taken into account. Based on the criteria as written, the conditions were met, and resolving YES was the only logical and fair decision. Thank you for your understanding.
@driss It's pretty unusual to resolve things for events that happened before the market was created. I'm happy to unresolve the market for you if you'd like
@driss Prediction markets are usually about future events. The wording in the title (“Will … take place before March 10, 2026?”) reasonably implies from market creation onward; otherwise it becomes a non-predictive “did it already happen?” question.
@driss If you apply your interpretation consistently, a ton of Manifold markets should be instantly resolvable at creation. For example, one of the biggest active markets right now is “Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?” (885 traders / 832 holders / ~7.3k trades). Its description defines what counts as a strike and the deadline — but it doesn’t explicitly say “after market creation”. Yet nobody treats it as already YES just because the US struck targets inside Iran in 2025, 2020 or 1988.
@prismatic I'm not sure it is common knowledge, because I've seen other markets resolve based on pre-market events just like this one did. But I agree it shouldn't happen
Based on the requirement for "formal, structured negotiation sessions acknowledged by both parties," the market should resolve YES.
Multiple sessions (Abu Dhabi I, Abu Dhabi II, and Geneva) have occurred at the government level with official delegations before the March 10, 2026, deadline. Even if no new session begins between today and March 10, the criteria have already been satisfied by the Geneva talks that concluded on February 18. Please resolve the market to yes as soon as possible. Thank you.