causal inference is largely and will stay largely irrelevant, if anyone wants to buy YES feel free to @ me to bet

I think this sort of depends on whether people think "very important" means "it's an important subfield or aspect of the field" vs "it's essential to the cutting edge of the field".

the market creator is biased ❗

@astyerche it’s resolve to poll

@cc6 just make the poll

@Jono3h I’ll make it in 2035.

@cc6 excuse me, I didn't notice it's in 2035