Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

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2027

49%

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"invade" means US military attempts to seize territory in Iran.

By themselves, airstrikes, a no-fly zone, and naval engagements do not count. An operation in which US military personnel are physically in Iran, but whose aim is not to seize territory (e.g. covert/clandestine operation), would also not count.

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Under what law or directive?

The amount of personnel required to capture and maintain occupied control of the Strait of Hormuz is astronomical. That being said, this is political theater, and I don't have faith that the decision makers are being fully rational.

@Quroe no one is rational. rationality is rationed. but iran maintains control of strait, no? us military is roughly 2x as big as iran's and iran has lost most of its ability to launch ballistic missiles, its people are angry in general, at iran, us, israel. perfect opportunity to seize control of strait. it may be considered irrational to lose dozens or hundreds of people in a war, but remember, how would you feel if iran bombed the us. which they hope to with a nuclear weapon