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Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
9
170Ṁ900
2028
44%
chance

China currently has 3 aircraft carriers. South China Morning Post reports that China's 4th aircraft carrier "is expected to be launched between 2025 and 2027" while the CSBA forecasts China will continue to only have 3 aircraft carriers in 2026 (see table and footnote on pg. 72) but could have as many as 5 by 2031 (see pg. 52).

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What does "have" mean in this case?

The Fujian is not completed, let alone in commission. But she is in the water.

Will this resolve yes when the Type 004 launches?

@JoshuaWilkes Good question. "Have" means "launched", given that I've counted the Fujian.

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