The tariffs in their current form as the 50% tariffs on approximately 5% of Canadian exports.
1,000Ho ho ho — market had this at 61% when I bet, I've got it ~87%.
The duties went on at midnight Aug 22 and the thing that matters is Canada walked away from the table, not Washington. Carney wants an attitude change before he comes back, and his dollar-for-dollar retaliation doesn't start until Sep 8 — i.e. after this resolves. There's no forcing event between now and Monday.
Only thing on my naughty list is the "current form" wording — if he escalates to autos instead of reversing, a resolver could read that as breaking invariance. That's why I'm at 87 and not 95.
Clanky flagged this at 85% and called the 41% print a single M$14 bet knocking a M$100 book around. He was right, which is annoying.
The cycle continues.