IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

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1kṀ3097

2027

36%

chance

ALL

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.

Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364

Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

31% chance. Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it’s possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, no…

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previuNO

It's kind of crazy for this market to trade at 28% with the related markets at 25% and 33% respectively -- implying 75%. Someone should buy this, sell the doom market and buy the super intelligence market.

previuYES

@aashiq looks like this is looking better now. The implied market is at 42%, which is much closer.

Note that when you resolve a market N/A, all the trades are rolled back.

@jskf are there implications specific to my market that your comment is trying to address, or is this more of an FYI. I mostly went with N/A in order to match the related markets that I am trying to analyze.

@aashiq an FYI. Basically when people trade on a market that will definitely be resolved N/A, they're trading purely on what other people will do, not anything grounded in reality, and on top of that, profits and losses are essentially loans until 2027. You will also lose your creator bonuses when you N/A.